Trakai, Lithuania. 18 January.
The snow folds and flows down to a small lake deep in the Lithuanian forest.
With the sky an azure blue it is a truly beautiful scene and a wonderful backdrop
to the ninth Snowmeeting which I had the pleasure to attend these few days past.
One of the great annual conferences the Snowmeeting brings together ministers,
experts, opinion-leaders from across the West…and me. Given the close proximity
of the meeting to the Russian border the main subject for discussion was, of
course, Russia. Specifically, the vital need for the July NATO Warsaw Summit to
communicate not just cohesion, but strength.
Just after Christmas President
Putin signed into Russian law a new decree establishing five new ‘regional
maritime counter-terrorist headquarters’. Although not directly aimed at the
Baltic States the location and leadership of the centres speak to Russian strategy.
Located in Dagestan, Murmansk, Kamchatka, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Simferopol in
Crime these isolated centres cover Russia’s borders from the Arctic, through
the Black Sea, along the southern border and into Russia’s far-east. Crucially,
they will be under the control of the successor to the KGB, the Federal Security
Service or FSB.
The centres are all evidence of Moscow’s
determination to extend its influence into the maritime domain as a means of
strengthening Russia’s ability to contest ‘sovereignty’ at sea, as well as on
land and in the air. Critically, the new centres also strengthen the so-called ‘vertikal’
through the FSB by reinforcing direct presidential control over all aspects of
strategy and action. Indeed, the centres
further consolidate presidential power over Russia’s sprawling security and
defence services. As such they fit into a pattern of such consolidations, led
most notably by the creation of the Centre for National Defence Management, at 22
Frunze Embankment in Moscow.
However, the much bigger picture
which President Putin is painting is one in which confrontation with the West
is central to the very existence of the state he leads. In that context the new
centres are key pieces of an emerging architecture for the waging of what the
Russians call ‘new generation warfare’; hybrid warfare in the parlance of the
West. Indeed, the reason why the centres are under the control of the FSB is precisely
because the heirs of Felix Dzerzinsky are the masters of the disinformation and
destabilisation strategies which are central to the conduct of hybrid warfare –
war at the seams of open societies.
Some suggest that the collapse of
the oil price will force Russia into a period of entrenchment. And, in the past
week Russia has indeed cut its public investment budgets. However, even the
most cursory study of President Putin reveals a man that is not easily diverted
from his strategy of rebuilding Russian influence via intimidation.
The one word which drives
President Putin is ‘respect’. From his earliest days in Leningrad and the
stories of Russia’s immense sacrifice during the 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War
with which he grew up President Putin has been driven by a vision of Russia as
a great power. This ‘vision’ was reinforced by his first-hand witnessing of the
collapse of Soviet power as a KGB Lieutenant-Colonel in Dresden, and his front
row seat as a senior official during the crises, corruption and chaos of the
Sobchak and Yeltsin years during the 1990s.
President Putin is thus a man
firm in his determination never again to see Russia humiliated with by itself
or others. His aim is the preservation of the Russian state which he believes
to be surrounded by enemies. To that end his beliefs can be thus summarised: the
acquisitive West is not to be trusted (he has a latent vaguely Leninist belief
that Western capitalism is both inherently corrupt and imperialist); that the
West talks about a rules-based system but only understand and listens to power;
only a powerful Russian state can stop corrupt politicians and officials from destroying
the Russian state from within.
The Kremlin as so often has
chosen its timing carefully. The West will be distracted in 2016 with US
presidential elections, the ongoing migration crisis and the Brexit referendum.
How and to what extent President Putin decides to use his new architecture of
confrontation will depend on the extent to which the Russian state is affected
by the collapsing oil price. The very fact of it may be enough for a divided
West to give Russia more influence over its ‘near abroad’ than should be the
case. Indeed, perhaps Russia’s greatest ‘ally’
is denial in key European states such as France and Germany, allied to Britain’s
unprincipled ‘you can have any British policy you like as long as you pay for
it’ mercantilism.
Back in September 2014 at the
NATO Wales Summit the assembled heads of state and government agreed to some
increase in defence expenditure and other measures designed to deter Russia. However,
the language of the Wales Declaration is full of ambiguity in the hope that Russia
could still be persuaded to deviate from its course of confrontation. Indeed,
the very use of the word ‘reassurance’ as opposed to ‘deterrence’ was proof of
strategic ambiguity. In 2016 such ambiguity
must be dismissed. Confrontation with NATO and the EU is now central to the
very narrative the Kremlin is using to justify an onerous investment in
security structures (including defence) that this year could top 10% of Russia’s
GDP.
Therefore, the NATO Warsaw Summit
must accelerate the increases in defence expenditure agreed at Wales, properly
establish counter-hybrid strategies, including cyber defence, and unequivocally
restore the link between NATO’s nuclear and conventional deterrence and defence
postures. Critically, the Spearhead Force and the enhanced NATO Response Force
must be reinforced by the creation of a much heavier force that would look
something like the old Allied Command Europe Mobile Force. Such a force would
raise significantly the cost for President Putin of any adventurism,
demonstrate NATO Europe’s willingness to share US burdens, ease pressure on an
over-stretched American military, and create a fire brigade, first responder
force that could credibly look east and south with power. Having taken these
steps the allies must then talk to Russia. Indeed, peace can only be guaranteed
through strength.
Over the years I have developed
not just a political affinity with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, but a deep
personal attachment. They are by no means perfect states, which state is
perfect, apart from Britain, of course, which is perfect in all ways…not. However,
for me these three re-freed peoples are the very embodiment of what the liberal
West should stand for – the sovereign right of peoples to make their own
sovereign choices as expressed through freely-elected representatives. However,
such freedom cannot be defended by words alone, and aggressors cannot be
deterred by well-intentions alone, however well-intentioned.
Therefore, at Warsaw we must all
put aside our many petty differences so that our Alliance can stand firm and
stand tall. One thing is clear; President Putin will do whatever it takes to
remain in power as he has come to see himself as the only true guardian of
Russia, Russians, and the Russian state.
As for the Snowmeeting…let it
snow!
Julian Lindley-French
No comments:
Post a Comment