Geneva, Switzerland. 9
February. Britain is still a major power but behaves ever more like a small one,
bereft of leadership, statecraft or strategic direction. However, all is not lost! That is the core message of my new paperback
(217 pages) Little Britain 2015 (very
reasonably priced) which examines the causes of Britain’s precipitous and exaggerated
strategic decline and what London must do about it. The book is a new version of my 2014 e-book of
the same name. However, I have re-written and updated the work to focus
specifically on the challenges and choices Britain faces in 2015 as a new
National Security Strategy (NSS) and Strategic Defence and Security Review
(SDSR) are being drafted. As such this
book considers the hard strategic choices all European states must face in a
dangerous world.
In 2010 then British
Foreign Secretary William Hague stated there will be no strategic shrinkage. Britain has been shrinking strategically ever
since threatening its continued role as a permanent member of the UN Security
Council and undermining British influence with key allies and partners and in
the EU, NATO and beyond. It is a retreat
from influence that is all too apparent in Britain’s complete absence from the
Ukraine crisis as France, Germany and the US take the lead.
However, it is not Britain's fate to decline inexorably as Britain is still one of the world’s top economies and one
of its leading military powers. Critically,
unless London’s High Establishment – both political and bureaucratic – face the
world as it is and not as they would like it to be 2015 could mark the true end
of Britain as a world power after some four hundred years. Sadly, much of Britain’s decline is
self-inflicted, reflective of a culture of declinism and defeatism that has
taken hold at the top of power in London.
London’s divided High
Establishment has abandoned firm strategic principles for a form of strategic
political correctness as short-term politics routinely trumps long-term
strategic principles. This retreat from
strategic judgement has been reinforced by an obsession with austerity and cutting
the deficit at whatever cost to foreign and defence policy, a lack of social
cohesion, as well as uncertainty about US leadership, the future of the EU and
Britain’s place therein. However, the main cause of decline is a timid,
strategically-illiterate political class no longer committed to any level of
strategic ambition about Britain’s role in the world. And, a Whitehall bureaucracy that has become increasingly
politicised and lacking all-important strategic unity of effort and purpose.
The politicisation of
London’s High Establishment is evident in the ideological struggle between hard
and soft power and the consequent loss of all-important balance between the two
as London retreats ever deeper into political spin to mask actual weakness. Sadly, the entire process of British
statecraft has become an unworkable and messy compromise. One camp believes
that Britain can still play a role in the world and that all British influence
must necessarily be established on credible armed forces and a tight
whole-of-government strategy and policy machine. Another camp is comprised of soft
power ideologues who believe that Britain’s strategic day is done and that in
the absence of national strategic principles and real political leadership a
capable British military simply leads Britain into other people’s dangerous
adventures.
Little
Britain 2015 rejects defeatism and argues that it is
not too late for Britain to regain strategic poise. Indeed, Britain’s demise is by no means
assured if only the High Establishment can wake up and get its act
together. To do that the book considers
the 2015 National Security Strategy and the Strategic Defence and Security
Review in the round and the positive view of Britain’s role in the contemporary
world that both reviews must espouse.
Little
Britain 2015 then offers a series of solutions to
take Britain out of its strategic malaise. First, Britain needs a National Security
Strategy that can properly assess Britain’s place in the world and what is
needed to defend and protect Britain’s critical national interests and exert
influence over the grand alliances critical to the British way of
strategy. Second, the National Security
Council must be much strengthened so that it can help properly forge a real whole-of-government
approach to national strategy and security and thus ensure balance is restored
between the protection of society and the projection of British power and
influence. Third, London must re-establish
a proper security dialogue with the British people and stop treating citizens
like children. Fourth, Britain must create a radical future British military
force powerful and agile enough to support the US and act as a high-end core
within NATO and the EU and configured to lead coalitions of allies and partners
the world over.
This is not just a book
about Britain. It is a book about the
choices all democracies must make as Russia and Islamic State bring the
strategic foreplay of the twenty-first century to a shattering end. Strategic engagement or strategic pretence; that
is the choice Britain faces. If it is
the latter then Britain, Europe and the wider West will become victims of
change rather than the masters of it. Now is the time to act!
The book is currently
available at www.amazon.co.uk. Enjoy the
read!
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